MIAMI – We may be entering the final weeks of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, but tropical activity is still possible as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) monitors two new areas for possible development.
The first area of interest is in the central tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean islands, while the second area is near Florida.
The NHC highlighted an area off the coast of Africa and stretching to the Caribbean where tropical development is possible over the next week. However, forecasters caution that there are conflicting signals on whether the disturbance in the area will ever become organized.
The energy that is expected to make up the tropical wave is forecast to leave the coast of Africa by Friday before traversing the Atlantic over the next couple of weeks.
Due to how much organization the tropical disturbance will need, quick intensification is not expected over the next week, despite warm sea-surface temperatures.
So far, the NHC is simply going with a low chance of development within the next seven days.
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The FOX Forecast Center said it will likely be toward the end of the second week of October when the wave approaches a “fork in the road,” determining whether it develops into a storm or fades into disorganized showers.
Computer models remain split on whether the next named storm on the 2025 list, “Jerry,” will form out of the broad complex of thunderstorms.
The Global Forecast System, otherwise known as the GFS, continues to show the tropical wave organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm just east of the Caribbean islands. Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which is commonly referred to as the Euro, keeps the system weak and disorganized throughout its lifespan.
The Euro solution would not lead to the formation of a tropical depression or storm and would instead produce only periods of increased cloud cover and scattered showers across the Caribbean islands.
It is common for major forecast models to display wide differences during the infancy of a tropical system. Over the next several days, forecasters expect the models to gradually converge on a more consistent solution.
A system that tracks closer to the equator has a greater chance of moving farther west across the Atlantic, compared with a system that forms at 20 degrees latitude or farther north.
During October and November, a plethora of troughs and cold fronts frequently sweep across the Atlantic, which can easily recurve tropical cyclones harmlessly into the open ocean.
Systems that remain farther south, however, may pose more of a concern for the Caribbean and other landmasses.
It is also important to note that the recent U.S. government shutdown has not impacted the accuracy of models such as the GFS. Essential staff, including Hurricane Hunters and satellite analysts, continue to perform their duties without interruption.
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A new area to watch for possible tropical development was also highlighted near Florida overnight.
The NHC said an area of low pressure may form near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida by Saturday.
Additional development is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf.
Right now, the NHC is giving the system a low chance of development over the next week.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, and on average, October and November yield about four named storms, with two of those typically reaching hurricane strength and one intensifying into a major hurricane.
