Britain is braced for what could be the final hot and humid weekend before autumn takes hold, as dreary Atlantic weather fronts become confined to northern areas.
Rain clears the southeast by midday today, leaving a day of mostly dry and sunny spells in the south, with showers in the north, as temperatures meet an average for September.
High pressure will begin to build from the southwest over the weekend, gradually drawing warm air northwards from southern Europe as we move into next week.
With temperatures across parts of Europe still reaching the 30s, this southerly flow could push temperatures across England and Wales to as much as 10 degrees above the seasonal average.
Parts of England and Wales could see temperatures climb into the mid to high twenties – a remarkable 10-degree swing for some compared with the middle of this week.
Temperatures are currently expected to peak around the middle of next week, particularly across the southeast.
There are also signs that the fine weather could persist for much of the week, with some indications that settled conditions may continue for many areas towards the end of September.
Northern Ireland and Scotland are unlikely to see quite the same influence from high pressure, with conditions more unsettled and temperatures closer to the seasonal average.
Much like March, September is a transitional month, with the weather often seeming to have one foot in summer and the other in autumn.
As we move deeper into autumn, Europe gradually loses its summer heat, meaning these bursts of warm air become less frequent. Even so, September has seen some remarkable extremes in the UK.
The highest temperature ever recorded during the month is 35.6C, while the lowest is −6.7C – a temperature range of 42.3C within the same month.
England will need significantly more rainfall than usual over the coming seven months if drought conditions are to be brought to an end across the country by spring 2027, according to new Environment Agency research.
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Despite periods of rain during the first part of September, lingering drought still affects almost 75 per cent of England.
The country has experienced an exceptionally dry spring and summer, compounded by a series of heatwaves that have placed further pressure on water supplies and the natural environment.
The Environment Agency estimates that rainfall between now and April would need to reach around 120 per cent of the seasonal average for drought conditions to be fully resolved nationwide.
There is also an estimated 25 per cent chance that drought could continue across roughly half of England next spring under less favourable rainfall conditions.
Recent rainfall has provided some respite, but it has not yet restored water resources to normal levels.
Groundwater remains depleted, while reservoir storage across England was just below 57 per cent last week — approximately 20 per cent lower than would normally be expected at this point in the year.
Environment Agency chief executive Philip Duffy warned that the situation remains serious, and that the rainfall seen so far is insufficient to make up for the substantial deficit built up during the spring and summer.
He urged the public to continue reducing their water use, saying that conserving water would help accelerate the recovery from drought.
One factor influencing the wider weather pattern is the current El Niño event, which is already close to record strength.
Historically, El Niño conditions have been linked with warmer, wetter and stormier weather in the UK during late autumn and early winter.
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