This July could be one of the hottest ever recorded despite a spell of cooler weather gracing Britain in the coming days, a weather forecaster has predicted.
Following an intense blast of heat earlier in the month, temperatures in the second half of July are set to return closer to average.
High pressure off to the west of Britain means Monday and Tuesday are expected to be particularly dry, with rainfall totals likely to remain well below average.
However, by the middle of the week, there are suggestions the high pressure may give way or drift further southwest, allowing fresher air to filter southwards.
Writing for NetWeather, Forecaster Ian Simpson suggested this month could be one of the hottest Julys on record.
“The recent exceptionally hot weather looks set to be over with for the second half of July,” Mr Simpson said.
“The medium range forecast models had previously shown potential for high pressure to push back eastwards across the British Isles, bringing potential for a fourth heatwave, but it now looks probable that high pressure will remain centred to the west of Britain during the coming week.
“That said, temperatures will still mostly be above average for the time of year, particularly in the south, where there is potential for them to nudge the low 30s Celsius, particularly towards the end of next week.
“Temperatures are likely to fall close to the long-term normal around July 26-27, when the weather finally looks set to turn more unsettled with low pressure.”
The record for the hottest ever July was set in 2006 according to the Central England Temperature (CET) series with a mean of 19.8C.
The current mean temperature for July 2026 stands at 20.5C for the period July 1-16.
However, Mr Simpson continued: “It is currently looking unlikely (though not impossible) to me that the July 2006 record will be beaten, although it looks probable to me that it will stay above 19C and produce a top 5 hottest July.
“July 2026 has potential to end up exceptionally dry and sunny, but there are doubts over this, particularly as much of the country is periodically being affected by cloud off the North Sea during the current spell, and it is set to become low pressure dominated from around July 26/27.”
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With the forecast looking dry and hitting highs of the mid 20Cs this week, South East Water announced a new hosepipe ban will be imposed on millions of its customers across the south of England.
The restrictions will impact customers in Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire, and Berkshire with residents told to immediately begin conserving water.
The ban will officially come into force on July 25 at one minute past midnight.
Central and south-east England have experienced more than 14 consecutive days without measurable rainfall between July 2-15, marking the longest dry spell in both regions since the 1990s.
South East Water wrote on its website: “Due to lower than average rainfall, continued hot weather and high demand, we’ve started to see a decline in river levels and need to protect some groundwater sources.
“This means we must now introduce hosepipe restrictions in Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire and Berkshire to join Kent where there are already restrictions.
“We’re urging everyone across Sussex, Surrey, Hampshire and Berkshire who’s supplied by us to please follow these restrictions straight away, to protect your water supply immediately, and the local environment.
“The restrictions will be in force from 00:01 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. In Kent, hosepipe restrictions came into force from 00:01 on Friday, July 3, 2026.”
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