Old Farmer’s Almanac Releases Fall 2025 Outlook: More Heat Ahead

As record-breaking temperatures continue to grip the nation, millions of Americans share this longing for relief. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its fall 2025 forecast, and the answer may disappoint those of us hoping for a dramatic cool-down this autumn. A Warmer Than Normal Fall Ahead

The publication, which has been providing weather predictions since 1792, forecasts that much of the United States will experience above-average temperatures this fall. The western half of the country should prepare for particularly steamy conditions, with eleven regions expected to see warmer-than-normal weather, including the Atlantic Corridor, Southeast, Florida, Deep South, Heartland, Texas-Oklahoma, High Plains, Intermountain, Pacific Northwest, Pacific Southwest, and Alaska.

“Your trek to the pumpkin patch may be a bit steamy this year,” the Almanac warns, suggesting that traditional fall activities might require adjustments for the persistent heat.

However, seven regions will catch a break from the warmth:

• Northeast
• Appalachians
• Lower Lakes
• Ohio Valley
• Upper Midwest
• Desert Southwest
• Hawaii

All of these areas are forecast to experience cooler-than-average conditions for the season.

Dry Conditions Dominate

While temperatures remain high across much of the nation, precipitation tells a different story. The forecast calls for below-average rainfall stretching from California to Florida and up to Maine. Only the High Plains and Pacific Northwest should keep umbrellas handy, as these regions are expected to receive above-normal precipitation.

The Northeast stands out with its double dose of relief, combining cooler temperatures with drier conditions. September temperatures are forecast to average 59°F (2° below normal) with 3.5 inches of precipitation, while October should see temperatures drop to 46°F (3° below normal) with just 2.5 inches of rain.

This combination of cool temperatures and below-average rainfall could create spectacular fall foliage conditions in the Northeastern region, offering at least one silver lining to the season’s weather patterns.

Regional Variations

• The Northeast: Cooler and drier conditions with September averaging 59°F (2° below normal) and October at 46°F (3° below normal). Rainfall below normal at 3.5 inches in September and 2.5 inches in October.
• Atlantic Corridor: Mixed temperatures with cooler conditions in the north and warmer in the south. September averages 70.5°F, October averages 55°F. Below-average rainfall overall.
• Appalachians: Cooler and drier than normal, with September averaging 65°F and October at 53°F. Precipitation at 3 inches in September, 2.5 inches in October.
• Southeast and Florida: Warmer and drier conditions continuing summer-like weather. Southeast September average of 78°F (3° above normal), Florida at 82°F (1° above normal). Both regions significantly drier than typical.
• Pacific Northwest: Warmer and wetter than normal, breaking the national dry trend. September averaging 63°F (1° above normal), October 57°F (2° above normal) with above-normal rainfall in October.
• Ohio Valley: Cooler and drier conditions with September around 68°F and October around 56°F, both with below-normal precipitation.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac develops its predictions using three scientific disciplines: solar science, climatology, and meteorology. These forecasts compare current conditions to a 30-year statistical average spanning 1991 through 2020, rather than simply comparing to the previous year.

As we transition from this summer’s record heat, the fall forecast suggests that outdoor enthusiasts should prepare for extended warm weather across much of the country, making early autumn feel more like an extended summer season.