Autumn is set to make its presence felt across the UK this week, with temperatures expected to fall as wetter and windier conditions develop, despite lingering summer highs expected today.
The week will begin on a warm note, with Monday bringing spells of sunshine and temperatures rising to 26C in many areas – heat that consistently barraged much of the country over summer.
However, forecasters expect conditions to change from Thursday, as winds turn westerly or north-westerly, bringing cooler air across the country.
As the month continues, much of the UK will remain cloudy at times, with rain likely to affect western coastal and hilly areas.
During the early part of the week, central and southern parts of England could see temperatures reach as high as 26C before the cooler conditions arrive.
By the end of the week, temperatures are expected to fall to between 14C and 16C in Scotland and Northern Ireland, while England is likely to see temperatures ranging from 17C to 20C.
The shift comes as the Met Office warns that the UK could face a wetter-than-average autumn, with an increased risk of flooding and windy conditions later in the season.
Forecasters said the chances of a warm and wet autumn are around one-and-a-half to two times higher than normally expected.
The outlook has been linked partly to a strengthening El Nino event in the Pacific, which is already at near-record levels.
El Nino occurs when sea-surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific become warmer than average and can influence weather patterns around the world, including in Europe.
The Met Office said some of the strongest El Nino events in history have been associated with warmer, wetter and stormier conditions across the UK and northern Europe during late autumn and early winter.
The seasonal shift is broadly consistent with that historical pattern, increasing the likelihood of unsettled conditions as the UK moves deeper into autumn.
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However, forecasters stressed that El Nino is only one of several factors influencing the UK’s weather, and cannot determine exactly what conditions the country will experience.
Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk said: “The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Nino events.
“While this event may become one of the strongest El Nino events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.”
The Met Office said it would continue to monitor developments and update its forecasts as confidence in the seasonal outlook increases.
With autumn expected to become increasingly unsettled, forecasters are urging people to remain aware of changing conditions, particularly the potential for heavy rain, flooding and stronger winds later in the season.
A similar pattern occurred in 2025, when record-breaking summer heat was followed by storms and flooding during autumn.
The Environment Agency’s National Drought Group recently warned that almost three-quarters of England remains in drought, despite recent downpours, with some reservoirs still at critically low levels.
Helen Wakeham, the agency’s director of water, said drought recovery was “a very long process”, with drought only considered over once reservoirs, rivers and groundwater supplies have returned to normal levels.
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