Much needed rainfall to reverse Britain’s worst drought in decades is not set to arrive until the autumn, as high temperatures continue and wildfire risks remain high.
Experts have warned that prolonged heatwave conditions, low rainfall, and shrinking water supplies are creating dangerous conditions, with the historic drought of 1976 now on the verge of being surpassed.
According to long-range forecasts, sufficient rainfall to bring an end to drought conditions is not expected until October, with around 23 million people subject to a hosepipe ban imposed by seven separate water companies across the country.
One more dry day would equal the 45-day rainless period experienced during the severe drought of 1976, which caused widespread water shortages and significant agricultural losses.
Areas officially designated as being in drought include East Anglia, Hertfordshire and London, the Thames Valley, Hampshire and the Isle of Wight, Devon and Cornwall, the West Midlands, and Wessex.
Experts are warning that current forecasts “do not favour the widespread, sustained rainfall” needed to make up the shortfall caused by recent dry conditions.
Met Office chief meteorologist Will Lang said: “While there is always the potential for periods of rain during the remainder of the summer, current forecasts do not favour the widespread, sustained rainfall that would be needed to make a significant difference to rainfall deficits that have built up over recent months.
“As we move through August, there remains a tendency towards drier than average conditions, particularly in southern and eastern areas.
“Meaningful recovery from prolonged dry conditions often relies on more frequent and widespread rainfall during the autumn months, when weather patterns typically become more changeable.”
Although there is no single trigger for declaring a drought, the Environment Agency assesses rainfall, river flows, groundwater levels, reservoir storage, and environmental impacts before making a declaration.
Officials say current conditions are placing increasing strain on communities, businesses, agriculture and ecosystems.
England has also received just seven per cent of its normal August rainfall, with southern regions recording a mere one per cent of their monthly average.
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With dry conditions and absent rainfall, nearly 80 per cent of England’s rivers are running below normal levels, with around one in six considered exceptionally low for this time of year.
Reservoir storage has also fallen to 75.3 per cent of capacity – more than seven percentage points below the seasonal average.
Amid drought conditions, emergency services remain under increasing pressure following a surge in wildfire incidents.
On Wednesday, a major incident was declared on the Suffolk coast after a large wind-driven forest fire broke out, edging dangerously close to the Sizewell B power plant.
According to the National Fire Chiefs Council, fire crews in England and Wales have responded to 706 wildfires so far this year, including more than 200 in the past two weeks – equivalent to a new wildfire roughly every 90 minutes.
Dozens of firefighters have been battling a blaze in east London amid the the threat of severe wildfires in the capital.
Crews fought a fire ripping across grassland in Hornchurch, with another fire destroying a large area of land in Rainham.
A total of 120 firefighters also battled two major grass fires in Romford on Wednesday.
The Met Office has issued a warning of “severe” wildfire conditions across much of England and parts of Wales, as temperatures are forecast to approach 35C over the next week – just the latest in a bombardment of scorching temperatures since May.
Beyon drought conditions, the intense heat has also brought with it a dnager to life, as nearly 3,000 heat-associated deaths have occurred during two heatwave periods in May and June this year.
According to early assessments by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), a staggering 2,877 heat-associated deaths have been recorded – almost double the figure reported annually for 2025.
An estimated 753 deaths were associated with the heat episode between May 24 and 27, with a further 2,124 amid the heatwave between June 21 and 28.
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